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Disclaimer: This site is an independent project and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to any political party, government body, or electoral agency. All polling data, sentiment analysis, and forecasts are provided for informational purposes only and should not be taken as definitive predictions of election outcomes. Data is sourced from publicly available information and may contain inaccuracies. Use at your own discretion.

NZ Election Tracker

Centre-right leads with 63 seats

Live forecast based on weighted average of 50 polls, Sainte-Laguë MMP seat allocation, and sentiment analysis.

Forecast

Poll-derived

Seat share percentages for each coalition bloc, derived from the latest poll using NZ's Sainte-Laguë MMP allocation. 61 of 120 seats needed for a majority.

Centre-right
53%63 seats
Centre-left
48%57 seats
Hung
0%

Based on latest polling via Sainte-Laguë seat allocation. Improves as sentiment + economic data feeds in.

Election Day

7 Nov 2026
240days to go
06:27:54.1
34 weeks8 months

Seat Projection

Sainte-Laguë
LAB
NAT
GRN
NZF
ACT
61 majority
LAB43
NAT40
GRN14
NZF13

Latest Poll

Curia
Curian=1,000 · Mar 2026
LAB
34.4%
NAT
28.4%
GRN
10.5%
NZF
9.7%
ACT
7.5%
TPM
3.2%
ACT10
Right bloc: 63Left bloc: 57120 seats allocated
TOP
1.9%

Sentiment Pulse

618 scores
NAT
0.00→
LAB
+0.07↑
NZF
+0.02→
GRN
+0.13↑
ACT
+0.11↑
TPM
+0.10↑
↑ Positive (>0.05)→ Neutral↓ Negative (<−0.05)

Scale: −1 (very negative) to +1 (very positive). Scored via AFINN-165 + Claude Haiku.

Breaking Content

785 articles

www.nzherald.co.nz/business/per... Well I never thought act would support this move given recent donors but we seriousl…

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While the pathetic grifters are whining about Labour 'ignoring advice' regarding COVID, here's a quick reminder #nzpol …

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Gaging interest for the next project. Does anyone here have an issue with the way VoteCompass and similar apps run? I’v…

Bluesky2h ago

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Who, other than literally everyone, could have predicted this? And yet Labour would still rathe…

Bluesky3h ago

Just. Fuck. Off. 🤬 NZ First calls for Covid-19 inquiry focused on vaccine injuries www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

Bluesky3h ago