Forecast

Seat projection via Sainte-Laguë MMP allocation from weighted average of 50 polls.

Monte Carlo coalition probabilities

72%

Centre-right majority

NAT + ACT + NZF ≥ 61 seats

63 seats (current avg)

19%

Centre-left majority

LAB + GRN + TPM ≥ 61 seats

57 seats (current avg)

No clear majority

Neither bloc reaches 61

Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations as of 11 Mar 2026. Each iteration perturbs polling on logit scale and allocates seats via Sainte-Laguë.

Party seat allocation (Sainte-Laguë)

LAB

Labour43 seats

33.3% party vote

NAT

National40 seats

30.69% party vote

GRN

Green14 seats

11.18% party vote

NZF

First13 seats

9.97% party vote

ACT

ACT New Zealand10 seats

7.57% party vote

Seat range by party (90% confidence interval)

LAB

Labour38–49 seats (median 43)

NAT

National34–45 seats (median 40)

GRN

Green12–18 seats (median 14)

NZF

First10–16 seats (median 13)

ACT

ACT New Zealand8–12 seats (median 10)

TOP

TOP0–0 seats (median 0)

TPM

TPM0–0 seats (median 0)

Shaded range shows 5th–95th percentile from 10,000 simulations. Solid bar marks the median.

Model methodology

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Polling average

Weighted average of 50 polls with 14-day exponential decay half-life. Sainte-Laguë seat allocation with 5% threshold.

Sentiment index

AI-scored media + social sentiment per party, contributing a ±2pp adjustment to polling estimates. Not yet integrated into forecast.

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Monte Carlo

10,000 iteration simulation on logit-scale. Perturbs polling averages with Gaussian noise, re-allocates seats via Sainte-Laguë per iteration.

Model roadmap

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Polling data

Wikipedia scraper live

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Historical results

2017–2023 seeded

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Weighted average

14-day half-life decay

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Monte Carlo

10,000 sims live